SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM

VII. Volcanoes and human societies  

VII.4 Integrated volcanic risk assessment

Conveners:
Matthieu Kervyn, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium; makervyn@vub.ac.be
Natalia Deligne, GNS Science, New Zealand; N.Deligne@gns.cri.nz
Angie Diefenbach, US Geological Survey, USA; adiefenbach@usgs.gov
Michaela Ridder, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Germany; michaela.ridder@min.uni-muenchen.de
Andreas Vogel, Norwegian Institute of Air Research, Norway; avo@nilu.no
Susanna Jenkins, Earth Observatory Singapore, Singapore; Susanna.Jenkins@bristol.ac.uk
Christina Magill, Macquarie University, Australia; christina.magill@mq.edu.au

Robust volcanic impact, threat, and risk assessment is an essential contribution volcanic risk management, societal resilience, and the long-term mitigation of eruption impacts. These relate volcanic hazards with estimates of the consequences on exposed populations, buildings, infrastructure, networks (e.g., aviation routes), and ecosystems. Studies can be undertaken at the single site, village or city scale, all the way to global assessments. Some assessments are volcano-specific, e.g. evaluate the threat posed by a single volcano, while others focus on the population or sector that may be disrupted, e.g., ash impacts from any volcano to the aviation sector, with many a combination of both. Assessments are undertaken by a variety of groups, including local through national-level governments, volcano observatories, international bodies, businesses, and the insurance sector.

In this session, we bring together volcanologists, risk scientists, planners, responders, engineers, and social scientists. We invite contributions concerning 1) methodologies and implementation of volcano threat assessments, 2) the development and application of fragility and vulnerability functions, particularly those relating to aviation and critical infrastructure, 3) advances in considering interdependencies, 4) illustrative case studies of past events, 5) exposure database compilation, including population, built environment, and land use considerations, particularly in data-poor contexts, and 6) the quantitative or qualitative integration of hazards, exposure and vulnerability.