SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM

V. Evaluating volcanic hazards  

V.3 Modeling volcanic hazards

Conveners:
Leah Courtland, University of Indianapolis; courtlandl@uindy.edu
Mark Bebbington, Massey University; m.bebbington@massey.ac.nz
Laura Sandri, INGV; laura.sandri@ingv.it
Sylvain Charbonnier, University of South Florida; sylvain@usf.edu
Jorge Bajo, University at Buffalo; jvbajo@buffalo.edu

Volcanic hazards, including lava flows, lahars, debris avalanches, pyroclastic density currents, ash/tephra fall, ballistics, toxic gases and volcanogenic tsunamis, pose a threat to communities on and near volcanoes all around the world. An important component to understanding the behavior of the physical processes that act during a volcanic eruption is the development and implementation of accurate and usable models. In this session, we welcome a wide range of contributions related to the modeling of these hazards, including (but not limited to) probabilistic, statistical, numerical, theoretical, and analogue models. Each of these strategies, as well as their combinations, has the capacity to shed light on (i) the underlying volcanological processes that result in various styles of eruption, (ii) the probability that a hazardous event occurs, (iii) the probable location and scale of impacts from one or more hazards, and (iv) quantifying hazard and providing information for risk management and land-use planning. Contributions that rely on field data and/or remote sensing tools to verify or compare different models of volcanic hazards are especially encouraged, as are new methods for improved calculation, and methodologies that might be applicable to more than one type of hazard.