SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM

III. From precursors to eruption  

III.3 Statistical approaches and integrated methods for improved forecasting of volcanic eruptions

Conveners:  
Corentin Caudron, Université Libre de Bruxelles ; corentin.caudron@gmail.com
Rebecca Astbury, University of Perugia; rebecca.astbury@studenti.unipg.it
Andrew Bell, University of Edinburgh; a.bell@ed.ac.uk
Lauriane Chardot, Earth Observatory of Singapore; L.Chardot@gns.cri.nz
Társilo Girona, Brown University; tarsilo.girona@gmail.com
Nico Fournier, GNS Science ; n.fournier@gns.cri.nz

Forecasting the style of an impending volcanic eruption and its evolution throughout, are primary goals in volcanology. The combination of geophysical and geochemical monitoring provides a wealth of data and our best insights into the condition of a volcanic system. Yet, it remains challenging to detect precursors to gas explosions, as well as to forecast the type, style, magnitude, and duration of a magmatic eruption. Short-term eruption forecasts are particularly uncertain and our models that relate changes in monitoring parameters to the probability, timing, and nature of future activity are wrong. More reliable and useful quantitative forecasting requires development of optimized and integrated monitoring networks, standardized approaches and nomenclature, a new range of statistical methods and models that better capture the complexity of volcanic processes and system dynamics.
We would like to gather topics including optimization of monitoring networks (from 1 sensor to multi-disciplinary efforts, for single volcanoes or volcanic regions), field studies or lab experiments, statistics, ‘physics-based’ or empirical models, with the final goal of improving process-based or pattern-based forecasting of volcanic events. We particularly encourage studies that challenge established paradigms and that may ultimately support decision making of local authorities.